AEJ Week Ahead: Thailand Q4 GDP and Central Bank Meetings

The report previews key economic data and central bank meetings in Asia ex-Japan, highlighting expected rate cuts in the Philippines and a hold in Indonesia. It also reviews recent easing biases in China and trade developments between the US and India.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs expects Thailand's Q4 real GDP to rise 1.8% yoy, surpassing consensus, with full-year 2025 growth revised up to 2.3% due to firmer momentum in investment and tourism.
• 2.Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its policy rate at 4.75% to balance currency stability (USD/IDR near 16,800) against stronger-than-expected Q4 growth of 5.4% y/y.
• 3.The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is forecasted to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.25% following a sharp slowdown in Q4 real GDP growth to 3.0% yoy.

Table of Contents

• ASEAN
• Roundup of last week’s economic and policy events
• China
• Taiwan
• India
• Asia-ex Japan Economics Calendar
• The Asia ex Japan Economics team
• Disclosure Appendix

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