ADNOC Distribution: Strong 1Q Execution Despite Mobility Disruption

Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating on ADNOC Distribution following a strong 1Q26 earnings beat characterized by resilient GCC fuel volumes and significant growth in the non-fuel retail sector.

Key Takeaways

• 1.1Q26 results exceeded expectations with EBITDA and Net Income rising 12% and 21% YoY respectively, driven by resilient fuel volumes and proactive margin management.
• 2.Retail fuel volumes in the GCC remained strong with 6% YoY growth despite regional mobility disruptions in March.
• 3.Non-fuel retail (NFR) is outgrowing the fuel business, supported by the ADNOC Rewards program which now has 2.7 million members.

Table of Contents

• Highlights from management's 1Q26 call
• Valuation screens as attractive
• Key takeaways from conference call: Retail volumes resilient, NFR outperforming; commercial upside remains opportunistic
• Retail fuel business: further volume growth acceleration driven by a resilient business model and network expansion
• Commercial segment gross profit continues to improve on the better mix effect
• Non-fuel retail: Healthy growth trends supported by revitalization strategy, C-store and Hub rollouts, and further loyalty program uptake
• DY remains attractive; further re-rating to be driven by execution on growth avenues
• Estimate changes, valuation and risks
• Risks to our view and price target include
• 1Q26 results summary
• Global comp sheet

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