Weekly Mash

Mark Wilson argues that despite recent strong equity gains, the market does not show 'bubble' characteristics comparable to historical extremes. He identifies an upcoming inflection in AI margins driven by Agentic AI as the most critical fundamental catalyst.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Current Nasdaq gains and trajectories are significantly less extreme than the 1999/2000 dot-com bubble in terms of percentage moves.
• 2.The 'Magnificent 7' trade at approximately 20x forward EPS, which is far lower than previous bubble leaders like Japan in 1989 (70x) or the 2000 tech bubble (50x).
• 3.Despite a strong rally, the S&P 500 has effectively de-rated on a valuation basis due to exceptional YoY EPS growth of +25%.

Table of Contents

• Nasdaq Performance and Historical Perspective
• Are conditions in place for an equity bubble ?
• Historical Valuation Comparisons
• Realised Earnings Growth
• Labor Market and Macro Catalysts
• The Agentic Economy - AI Inflection

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