Weekly CIO Bulletin

Weekly UpdateRates Govt BondsEquitiesCommoditiesInformation TechnologyEnergy

Global rates are repricing higher due to energy supply risks and Asian currency weakness, while equity markets remain buoyed by resilient AI-related earnings growth.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Energy risks are driving a repricing of global rates as Brent crude futures curve shifts upward following prolonged supply disruption concerns.
  • 2.Emerging Asian markets are facing front-loaded rate hike pressures due to currency weakness and tightening negative correlation between yields and FX.
  • 3.The AI sector remains a primary driver of equity earnings growth, with hyperscaler capex forecasts for 2026 revised upward by 20%.

Table of Contents

  • Oil risk premium is building, slowly
  • Currency stress is pulling rates higher
  • AI dominance deepens; demand remained resilient despite higher costs
  • Market Review
  • Market Data
  • Disclaimer
  • Sources

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Authors

Vis NayarRay FarrisViola Wang

Securities

SPXNASDAQ Composite IndexUS 10 Year TreasuryBrent Crude

Themes

Stagflation Risk from Geopolitical TensionsAI Infrastructure Investment SupercycleFiscal Fragility in Emerging Markets

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaEuropeUnited StatesJapanPhilippines