Higher Energy Prices and EM Earnings Growth

Emerging Markets are entering a historic 25-year peak in earnings growth driven by AI and fundamental improvements, though the US-Iran conflict introduces near-term energy price risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.EM earnings are entering their strongest multi-year upswing in 25 years, with 33% EPS growth expected in 2026.
• 2.The US-Iran conflict and resulting higher energy prices present near-term headwinds, particularly for major energy importers like India and Thailand.
• 3.EM equities historically show resilience to supply-side oil shocks, often performing in line with or better than Developed Markets.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Impact of Iran-US conflict
• The long-term case for EM equities remains intact

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