Precious Special Report

Deutsche Bank research identifies a tactical move lower for precious metals due to hawkish Fed policy expectations and softening investment flows. The long-term outlook remains structurally positive, underpinned by central bank buying and persistent US debt growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Gold prices are being pressured by hawkish Fed repricing and resilient US economic data, leading to a revised base case of USD 4,800/oz by Q4 2026.
• 2.Short-term investment demand (ETFs, futures) is weak, and China/India import demand is declining due to domestic policy changes and currency trends.
• 3.Structural support remains via central bank gold accumulation and US federal debt growth, which continues to exceed long-term CBO projections.

Table of Contents

• Hawks drive out bulls
• Recalibrating precious forecasts
• Policy risk scenarios
• Recent tightening examples
• Short-term flow factors appear weak
• Longer-term gold drivers
• Outlining the picture for H2

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial