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Deutsche Bank

July 6, 2026

Focus Europe: The Status Of European Defence

Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsOther

This report examines the status of European defense spending and industrial capacity ahead of the July 2026 NATO summit, highlighting a three-speed spending approach across the continent.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.European defense spending is rising, with the six largest economies expected to reach a GDP-weighted average of 2.8% by 2029.
  • 2.Fiscal constraints and political pressures, particularly in Italy and Spain, create obstacles to meeting the NATO 3.5% core defense spending target.
  • 3.Common EU funding mechanisms, such as topping up the SAFE facility, are being discussed to bridge the gap between national spending and defense needs.

Table of Contents

  • Taking stock of Europe’s security challenges
  • Where are we now on European defence spending
  • The funding question and the fiscal constraints
  • Common defence funding debate in focus
  • What's the status of Europe's defence industrial ramp up
  • Securing European defence is as much about strategy as about spending levels

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Authors

Peter SidorovClemente DeluciaMarion MuehlbergerMark WallYacine RouimiSanjay Raja

Themes

Defense Industrial BaseEuropean Defense SpendingFiscal ConstraintsNATO 3.0

Regions

EuropeGermanyFranceUnited Kingdom