Euro Weekly Digest

The Euro Weekly Digest highlights the potential for ECB hawkishness at the upcoming Sintra conference and notes that falling oil prices are alleviating some inflation pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The fall in oil prices reduces inflationary pressure, potentially easing the hit to real income but leaving the ECB's rate hike path data-dependent.
• 2.Markets may have misinterpreted ECB President Lagarde's recent comments, creating the potential for a hawkish surprise at the upcoming Sintra conference.
• 3.Euro area growth remains weak, with Q2 PMI averages pointing to a slight GDP contraction of around 0.12% q/q.

Table of Contents

• Week ahead
• Week in review
• This week's publications
• Lagarde and Sintra (Mon-Wed)
• May money and credit (Mon)
• June flash HICP (Mon-Wed)
• June Final PMIs (Wed, Fri)
• Other data
• ECB schedule
• Oil is broadly back to pre-conflict levels
• June preliminary PMIs
• German ifo
• German infrastructure
• June confidence surveys
• May household inflation expectations

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