Deutsche Bank Research Institute

Deutsche Bank Research Institute’s latest analysis underscores a dual focus on macroeconomic structural shifts and micro-level supply chain vulnerabilities. The research highlights a significant reversal of the 'end of history' era, noting that emerging market central banks are pivotally shifting toward gold to secure strategic autonomy following the 2022 freeze of Russian reserves. Analysts project that as global dollarization fades, central bank gold allocations could rise from 30% to a target of 40%, potentially driving prices toward $8,000 through sustained demand and price momentum. Parallel research into European transport networks introduces a 'physical distance travelled' metric to quantify exposure to logistical disruptions, finding that capital goods and materials manufacturing face risks from supply chains averaging nearly 5,000 km. Furthermore, while jet fuel shortages pose a limited threat to general goods, they represent a critical vulnerability for the tourism-dependent economies of Croatia, Greece, and Portugal. Collectively, these findings reflect an institutional emphasis on identifying systemic risks arising from both geopolitical fragmentation and the physical realities of globalized production.