Thailand Chartbook Higher 1Q26 Growth and Middle East Driven Headwinds

Thailand's 1Q26 GDP growth of 2.8% faces new headwinds from the Middle East conflict, which is driving up energy costs and disrupting tourism. DBS expects a policy rate pause from the BOT and a 1.6% growth forecast for 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Thai real GDP growth rose to 2.8% yoy in 1Q26, but now faces stagflationary headwinds from the Middle East conflict.
• 2.Inflation has surged to 2.9% due to energy price jumps, likely remaining elevated through 2026.
• 3.A THB400bn fiscal stimulus package (Emergency Borrowing Decree) is planned to provide targeted relief and support renewable energy.

Table of Contents

• REAL GDP GROWTH
• IMPACT OF MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
• PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND TOURISM
• GOODS EXPORTS
• INVESTMENT
• INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY
• FISCAL POLICY

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