French Fiscal Outlook

This report examines the precarious fiscal trajectory of France, highlighting the high risk of a deficit drift toward 6% in 2027. It emphasizes that structural issues like high debt servicing and social spending indexation pose significant long-term challenges.

Key Takeaways

• 1.France faces a potential fiscal drift towards 6% or higher in 2027 due to rising interest costs and automatic social spending indexation.
• 2.Meaningful structural consolidation post-2027 is difficult because France already has an extremely high tax burden and social spending levels.
• 3.The 2026 fiscal outturn is pressured by Q1 contraction and Middle East-related economic headwinds.

Table of Contents

• The starting point: 2025 upside, 2026 execution
• Unchanged fiscal policy would make 2027 the largest deficit drift since 2020
• Post-2027 outlook: stabilising, making efforts or letting it die
• Appendix – The special law: coverage and modalities

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial