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June 11, 2026

Oil Monitor

Commodities StrategyCommoditiesEnergy

China's significantly reduced crude oil imports appear sustainable, as the country can maintain refinery operations without aggressive inventory depletion. Meanwhile, ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to support elevated Brent crude oil price forecasts.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.China's crude oil imports have significantly dropped, but can be sustained at current lower levels without needing to draw down inventories.
  • 2.Rising US-Iran tensions are keeping upward pressure on Brent crude prices, with a forecast of $110 average in 3Q'26.

Table of Contents

  • CITI'S TAKE
  • ANALYST CERTIFICATION
  • IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
  • RESEARCH ANALYST AFFILIATIONS / NON-US RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURES
  • OTHER DISCLOSURES

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Authors

Anthony YuenEric G LeeFrancesco MartocciaMaximilian J LaytonXiaodan ZhuArkady Gevorkyan

Themes

China's Energy Consumption ResilienceGeopolitical Oil Risk

Regions

Middle EastAsia PacificChinaUnited StatesIran