Citi
May 11, 2026
Guide to US CPI Risks
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsFXRates Govt BondsEnergyOther
Citi expects a 0.36% MoM core CPI for April, anticipating that sticky shelter inflation will eventually cool by June, paving the way for Fed cuts in September.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Citi economists expect a 0.36% MoM core CPI print for April, primarily driven by shelter inflation and airfares.
- 2.Market pricing suggests that a downside CPI surprise would cause a more significant reaction than an upside one.
- 3.Geopolitical risks, specifically the US/China summit and tensions involving Iran, are secondary but critical event risks for the week.
Table of Contents
- FOMC What's Priced In - Citi STIRT
- Contact: CitiFXWire@citi.com
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Authors
Tania Chen
Securities
SPXEURUSDCrude Oil
Themes
US Inflation Persistence vs. Transitory ResidualsFed Pivot Timing
Regions
North AmericaAsia PacificMiddle EastUnited StatesChinaIran