Global Macro Strategy Correlation Corner Expressions For US Exceptionalism

Citi analysts argue that diverging economic momentum between the US and G9 economies signals a return to US exceptionalism, supporting strategies that pair US equity upside with EURUSD downside.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Accelerating US economic data momentum relative to the G9 suggests a 'US exceptionalism' macro regime.
• 2.SPX upside combined with EURUSD downside is identified as an expression of the US exceptionalism theme that offers positive expected value.
• 3.While tactical risk-off indicators triggered recently, US equity price momentum and earnings health suggest keeping a constructive medium-term outlook.

Table of Contents

• CITI'S TAKE
• US Exceptionalism?
• Bullish on US Equities, USD
• SPX up/EURUSD down expressions can be positive EV
• Appendix – Correlation Grids
• Appendix A-1
• ANALYST CERTIFICATION
• IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
• RESEARCH ANALYST AFFILIATIONS / NON-US RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURES
• OTHER DISCLOSURES