CIBC Capital Markets Research Hub

CIBC Capital Markets centers its current research on a "geopolitical tug of war" that is significantly influencing major currency pairs like USD/CAD and USD/JPY. While near-term safe-haven demand continues to bolster the USD, analysts anticipate a shift toward trend weakening by late 2026 as global rate divergence becomes fully integrated into market pricing. In Europe, the firm highlights the European Central Bank's probable trajectory toward a June interest rate hike as a key regional catalyst. Regarding the Japanese Yen, CIBC notes a shift in policy sentiment, with the Ministry of Finance appearing resigned to JPY weakness exceeding the 160 level. The research also monitors the CNH, which remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, specifically potential outcomes from high-level Trump-Xi summitry. Finally, for emerging markets, CIBC identifies attractive carry opportunities in the MXN and BRL, though they caution that underlying political risks persist as a primary headwind for these assets.