Report published May 25, 2026

Markets Outlook: BNZ Analysis on RBNZ Policy and NZ Government Budget (26 May 2026)

Bank of New Zealand · May 25, 2026

The BNZ Markets Outlook highlights the RBNZ's expected hawkish hold on the OCR at 2.25% and the upcoming NZ Government Budget. Global markets are focused on potential Middle East de-escalation and US inflation data.

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Finvaulta summarizes Bank of New Zealand's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The RBNZ is expected to hold the OCR at 2.25% this week but will likely bring forward projected rate hikes due to inflation pressure.
2.The New Zealand Government Budget release on Thursday is expected to show little change to the bond programme despite fiscal pressures.
3.Global market sentiment is buoyed by potential peace deal developments in the Middle East involving the US and Iran.

Bank and Budget Week
Global Watch
Key Event Previews
Fixed Interest Market
Foreign Exchange Market
Technicals
Quarterly Forecasts
Annual Forecasts
Key Upcoming Events

Report data

RBNZ projected OCR path expected to be revised higher

Metric	Estimate	Context
Official Cash Rate (OCR)	2.25%	Current policy rate in New Zealand.
Brent Crude Price	104 USD/barrel	Impact of Middle East negotiation news.
NZ Q1 Retail Sales Volume	0.9%	Pointed to decent growth in first quarter.
NZ Household Inflation Expectation (Median)	5.0%	Rose from 4.0% in previous survey.