US Pulse: Rate Cuts to be Delayed Until December

ANZ Research has pushed back its forecast for the first Fed rate cut to December 2026, citing energy price uncertainty and a focus on inflation credibility for the incoming Fed Chair.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ has delayed its expectation for the first Fed rate cut to December 2026, following a period of extended hold.
• 2.Underlying price pressures are not accelerating outside of energy-related impacts; the core PCE is expected to show weak transmission of energy inflation.
• 3.The US labour market is viewed as vulnerable, with downside indicators signaling upside risks to the unemployment rate.

Table of Contents

• Fed rate view
• The week ahead
• The week that was
• Fed to hold rates in the near term
• An extended hold
• Data signals disinflation
• Is a rate hike on the cards?
• Data pulse: the week ahead
• Data pulse: the week that was

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