Tonga Growth Constrained Potential Intact

Tonga's economy faces subdued growth as income from overseas employment and remittances peaks. Future economic prospects rely on scaling agriculture and tourism sectors.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Tonga's GDP growth is expected to remain subdued, with a forecast of 2.1% in 2026-27 and 2.3% in 2027-28.
• 2.Income from overseas employment and private remittances, key drivers of consumer demand, are showing signs of peaking and stabilizing.
• 3.Agriculture and tourism are identified as the primary sectors for future long-term growth and employment.

Table of Contents

• Tonga: growth constrained, potential intact
• Income from short-term overseas employment has peaked
• Family remittances are levelling off
• Total remittances and gross national disposable income to slow
• Agricultural exports improving
• Tourism recovery showing encouraging signs
• Capital projects supporting activity
• Agriculture and tourism offer the strongest medium-term upside

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