The Vault Short Term Headwinds

ANZ Research expects gold to face near-term volatility from rising US yields but maintains a long-term bullish view driven by central bank diversification and geopolitical risks. Silver is similarly seen as vulnerable in the short term but supported by industrial demand and a persistent market deficit.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Gold is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to inflation expectations, higher yields, and a strong USD, though the long-term outlook remains positive.
• 2.Central bank gold demand remains a structural support, with 2026 purchase estimates revised upward to 950t.
• 3.Silver prices look vulnerable in the near term as spot supply tightness eases, despite a long-term structural market deficit.

Table of Contents

• Short-term headwinds
• Gold remains volatile in the near term
• Shifting demand from jewellery to retail investment
• Central bank gold buying mirrors the trend in 2022
• Diverging gold policy in China and India
• Silver: shaping its own story, but looks vulnerable
• Precious metals scorecard
• Calendar
• Prices
• Investment
• Physical market
• Forecasts

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