RBNZ MPS Starting Point Surprise Chart Pack

ANZ provides a visual comparison of New Zealand's economic performance against RBNZ's February forecasts, highlighting stronger inflation and weaker GDP growth. The report suggests the shifting economic outlook now outweighs individual data surprises in determining monetary policy.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The change in the economic outlook since February is likely to be more influential for monetary policy than specific starting-point data surprises.
• 2.Inflation data has been mixed: Q1 CPI was stronger than forecast (driven by tradables), while Q4 GDP growth was weaker than expected.
• 3.Taylor Rule analysis suggests current interest rates (OCR) of 2.25% may be too accommodative, though this does not account for recent tightening in financial conditions.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• GDP
• CPI
• Labour market
• External sector and housing
• Capacity indicators and Taylor Rules

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