RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Review

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% in a split 3:3 vote but raised its future rate path significantly due to Middle East conflict-driven inflation shocks. ANZ expects three 25bp hikes starting in July 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.25% in a tie-break 3:3 vote, signaling a significant hawkish shift in the Committee's internal consensus.
• 2.The RBNZ's projected OCR peak was raised to 3.28% by June 2029, implying front-loaded hikes to combat inflation.
• 3.Middle East conflict disruptions to oil supply are the primary driver of higher near-term inflation (peaking at 4.3%) and lower GDP growth forecasts.

Table of Contents

• Itching to hike
• In brief
• Key quotes
• The decision-making process
• RBNZ forecasts in brief
• Risks
• Our take
• Financial markets
• Media release – OCR held at 2.25%
• Summary record of meeting – May 2026
• Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting global supply chains
• Trading partner inflation is increasing
• The New Zealand economy was recovering prior to the conflict
• Near-term inflation is expected to increase and economic growth to weaken
• Financial conditions have tightened
• The Committee discussed risks to the inflation outlook
• The Committee voted to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent
• Key forecasts: Centralising the oil price shock results in weaker growth and higher inflation
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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