RBNZ Monetary Policy Review

ANZ Research anticipates a 25bp hike to the RBNZ's Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.50%. The report argues that the current stimulatory 2.25% rate is insufficient given persistent inflation risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ expects the RBNZ to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% at the next meeting.
• 2.A neutral-to-dovish hike strategy is identified as the most comfortable position for the RBNZ committee to maintain control of the narrative.
• 3.The RBNZ's model likely shows more urgency to hike than in February, though less than May, due to a lower TWI exchange rate offsetting lower oil prices.

Table of Contents

• Preview: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
• Let's get started
• Key views
• Oil prices have dropped back to where they were! Why hike?
• Inflation considerations
• Growth considerations
• The RBNZ model's OCR prescription
• Decision time
• Key quotes from RBNZ May Summary Record of Meeting
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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