Quarterly Signals from Australia's Monthly Trimmed Mean

ANZ Research outlines a framework where Australia's quarterly trimmed mean inflation can be predicted using the first month of the quarter's CPI data. The report provides specific thresholds for April's CPI that would signal different Q2 inflation outcomes.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A surprisingly accurate forecast of quarterly trimmed mean inflation can be derived from the monthly trimmed mean using only the first month of the quarter and historical data.
• 2.For the June quarter (Q2) 2026, an April monthly trimmed mean rise of 0.30% or less would suggest a quarterly print of 0.8% q/q or lower.
• 3.It would require a significantly higher monthly increase in April (0.44% m/m) to push the Q2 quarterly trimmed mean estimate to 1.1% q/q.

Table of Contents

• Author
• Contact
• Quarterly signals from Australia's monthly trimmed mean (reprised)
• Details
• Important Notice

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