NZ Weekly Fuel Market Watch

This report monitors the global and domestic factors influencing New Zealand fuel prices, emphasizing that refining margins, freight, and Asian supply benchmarks are now primary drivers.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The factors driving New Zealand pump prices have become significantly more complex, requiring monitoring of global refining margins and freight costs rather than just crude oil benchmarks.
• 2.New Zealand transitioned to importing 100% refined fuel products following the closure of the Marsden Point refinery in 2022.
• 3.Singapore refined prices and Murban crude (UAE) are more accurate supply-chain proxies for New Zealand fuel than the global Brent benchmark.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• ANZ card spending at fuel stations
• National weekly average price paid by consumers as of last Friday
• Crude prices expressed in NZD
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Petrol)
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Diesel)
• Crack spreads
• Refining margins
• Spot-front spread
• Brent futures curve – the market's take
• Brent futures – The evolving shape of the curve
• New Zealand's fuel supply (days cover)
• Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings
• Freight costs
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (petrol)
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (diesel)
• The New Zealand dollar
• OPEC estimated monthly production
• Monthly fuel imports by country (main suppliers)
• Fuel imports by country (historical)
• Fuel supply by method
• Fuel demand by main sector (time series)
• Diesel and petrol end use in "normal times"
• Diesel end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in "normal times"
• Petrol end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in "normal times"
• Important Notice

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