ANZ
June 2, 2026
Nickel Market Rebalancing
Monthly UpdateCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsMaterialsEnergy
The global nickel market is transitioning to a deficit in 2026 due to Indonesian supply restrictions, while Middle Eastern geopolitical risks continue to maintain a premium in energy markets.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The nickel market is expected to shift from a surplus to a small deficit in 2026 as Indonesia tightens supply through lower mining quotas and higher benchmark prices.
- 2.Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted oil supply, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting Persian Gulf production by 13-14mb/d.
- 3.El Niño conditions have an 82% probability of developing by mid-2026, posing risks to mining, agriculture, and energy demand.
Table of Contents
- Nickel market rebalancing
- Strategy
- Energy
- Carbon
- Base and critical minerals
- Precious metals
- Bulk commodities
- Weather
- Southern oscillation
- Medium-term outlook
- Month in review
- Calendar
- Investor positioning
- Inventory and Prices
- ANZ forecasts
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Authors
Soni KumariDaniel Hynes
Securities
LME NickelBrent CrudeHGEUA
Themes
Geopolitically Driven Supply ShocksResource Nationalism and Policy ShiftsClimate and ENSO Transition
Regions
Middle EastAsia PacificEuropeIndonesiaChinaUnited States