New Zealand Weekly Data Wrap

ANZ expects a July OCR hike from the RBNZ despite downside risks to inflation from lower global oil prices. The bank maintains its stimulatory policy trajectory to ensure long-term inflation control.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Lower global oil prices present downside risk to near-term CPI, but do not derail the case for a July OCR hike.
• 2.The RBNZ's OCR remains stimulatory, and a hike is viewed as necessary to manage the economic narrative and move policy closer to neutral.
• 3.New Zealand milk production reached a record high of 2.03 billion kgMS for the 2025/26 season.

Table of Contents

• ANZ Proprietary data
• Key forecasts and rates
• Oil prices pose downside risk to inflation outlook
• NZ Economic News
• Data calendar
• Interest rate markets
• FX markets
• The week ahead
• Key Forecasts and Rates
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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