New Zealand Weekly Data Wrap

ANZ previews a critical week for New Zealand featuring the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and Budget 2026 amidst an oil price shock. They expect the OCR to remain at 2.25% with a hawkish signal for July.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR on hold at 2.25% next week but signal a 50/50 chance of a July hike.
• 2.Budget 2026 will be delivered under fiscal pressure from oil shocks, with Treasury expected to downgrade economic outlooks.
• 3.Retail trade volumes rose 0.9% q/q in Q1, but April card spending fell 1.6% m/m as households reacted to fuel price surges.

Table of Contents

• ANZ Proprietary data
• Key forecasts and rates
• Next week a big one for monetary and fiscal policy
• NZ Economic News
• Data calendar
• Interest rate markets
• FX markets
• The week ahead
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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