New Zealand Weekly Data Wrap

ANZ highlights that New Zealand's economic activity is weakening due to an oil price shock, even as inflation expectations remain elevated. While April price data was slightly softer than expected, ANZ expects the RBNZ to raise interest rates starting in July.

Key Takeaways

• 1.April Selected Price Indexes (SPI) rose 1.3% m/m, which was slightly weaker than the expected 1.7%, though Q2 CPI forecast remains at 4.4% y/y.
• 2.The RBNZ Survey of Expectations showed near-term inflation expectations (1-year) rose significantly, but longer-term measures (5- and 10-year) actually declined.
• 3.The New Zealand housing market is showing signs of cooling, with the REINZ House Price Index falling 0.4% m/m in April.

Table of Contents

• ANZ Proprietary data
• Key forecasts and rates
• Consumer prices up; house prices down
• RBNZ's Survey of Expectations – no smoking gun for a May hike
• NZ Economic News
• Data calendar
• Interest rate markets
• FX markets
• The week ahead
• Key Forecasts and Rates
• Economic forecasts
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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