New Zealand Property Focus: What Might House Prices Do Over the Next 30 Years

The NZ housing market is softening with prices expected to fall 2% in 2026, while the long-term trend for the next 30 years points to more modest 4% annual growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The New Zealand housing market is currently softening, with house prices falling 0.4% in April 2026 and ANZ forecasting a 2% decline for the full year 2026.
• 2.Long-term house price growth over the next 30 years is projected to slow to an average of 4% per year, down from the 6% average seen since 1992.
• 3.The RBNZ is expected to implement three OCR hikes starting in July 2026, targeting a neutral rate of 3.0%.

Table of Contents

• At a glance
• Housing Market Overview
• Regional Housing Market Indicators
• Feature article: What might house prices do over the next 30 years?
• Mortgage Borrowing Strategy
• Weekly Mortgage Repayment Table
• Mortgage Rate Forecasts
• Economic Forecasts

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