New Zealand GDP and Balance of Payments Preview

ANZ Research forecasts a 1.0% q/q increase in New Zealand's Q1 2026 GDP, indicating resilience before the impact of recent fuel price volatility. This growth aligns with RBNZ expectations and maintains the possibility of an OCR hike in July.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ expects New Zealand GDP grew 1.0% q/q in Q1 2026, showing momentum prior to fuel price surges.
• 2.The Q1 GDP data could bolster the case for an RBNZ Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike in July.
• 3.Annual current account deficit for Q1 is expected to remain stable at 3.7% of GDP.

Table of Contents

• Data summary
• Momentum before the shock
• The big picture
• Monetary policy implications
• The details
• Q1 Balance of Payments preview
• Meet the team

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