Growth to Hold Up but Above Target Inflation to Prompt SBV Hikes

Vietnam's economy remains resilient with a 7.2% growth target, but rising oil-driven inflation will likely trigger a 100bp rate hike by the SBV in H2 2026. Despite trade deficit concerns, FDI and equity market upgrades are expected to stabilize the VND.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 7.2%, citing resilient export momentum and strong public investment despite global oil price shocks.
• 2.Vietnam's 2026 inflation forecast has been revised upward to 4.9% from 3.8% due to rising transport and housing-related costs, exceeding the central bank's target.
• 3.The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is expected to raise the refinancing rate by 100bp to 5.50% in H2 2026 to combat inflation and rebalance credit growth vs. deposits.

Table of Contents

• Authors
• Growth to hold up but above-target inflation to prompt SBV hikes
• Vietnam well positioned to absorb oil shock
• Oil shock flowing through into higher inflation
• SBV to tighten monetary policy
• The currency can maintain stability
• Vietnam activity heatmap
• Important Notice

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