Global Oil Market Tracker

The global oil market faces refining capacity constraints that keep product margins elevated despite partial recovery in crude supply. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to disrupt trade routes and threaten supply reliability.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global markets are shifting from crude scarcity to refining scarcity, where the main constraint is the capacity to convert crude into usable fuels.
• 2.US refining margins remain elevated due to tight product supply, seasonal demand, and limited capacity to increase output.
• 3.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically around the Strait of Hormuz and Omani coastal routes, continue to disrupt shipping and trade flows.

Table of Contents

• Crude oil: global inventory depletion timeline
• Oil products: global inventory depletion timeline
• Explainer: refining margins surge on product market tightness
• What has changed in the last week?
• What to watch in the next week?
• Changes in oil output from the Persian Gulf
• Exports from Persian Gulf producers
• Persian Gulf: oil production losses by country
• US shale oil producer remain cautious
• Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings
• US exports of fuel products continue to fall
• Drawdown in global oil inventories centred in America
• Drawdowns in global oil product inventories stabilises
• Crude oil at sea (global)
• Persian Gulf inventories
• US oil product stockpiles rise as refineries ramp up
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• Drawdown in Australia's petroleum inventories picks up
• Singapore oil product inventories rebound
• US oil refining margins push higher on strong demand
• Oil product prices stabilise despite ongoing tightness
• Global crude oil prices collapse to pre-conflict levels
• Crude oil spot price discount widens
• Crude oil spreads
• Investor positioning

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