The global oil market remains supply-constrained due to shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and structural production issues. Market participants continue to rely heavily on inventory drawdowns as full production restoration is not expected until at least 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Physical oil balances remain constrained due to ongoing operational bottlenecks and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2.Supply recovery is slow, with full restoration unlikely this year; roughly 1-2mb/d of supply is at risk of permanent or semi-permanent loss.
- 3.Global reliance on inventories remains high, with ongoing draws from the US SPR and oil-on-water stockpiles.
Table of Contents
- Crude oil: global inventory depletion timeline
- Oil products: global inventory depletion timeline
- Explainer: headwinds for recovery of oil supply
- What has changed in the last week?
- What to watch in the next week?
- Supply
- Trade
- Inventories
- Prices
- Investor positioning
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Authors
Daniel HynesSoni Kumari
Securities
Brent CrudeWTI Crude
Themes
Supply Chain BottlenecksEnergy SecurityGeopolitical Risk
Regions
Middle EastAsia PacificUnited StatesIranSaudi Arabia