Global Oil Market Tracker

The global oil market is grappling with a 10.5mb/d supply loss from the Persian Gulf, currently mitigated by high inventories and SPR releases. However, refined product stocks are falling rapidly below historical norms, indicating tightening pressure despite the lack of a price spike to $200/bbl.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global crude oil losses from the Persian Gulf are estimated at 10.5mb/d, primarily due to the conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 2.Oil prices have avoided a spike to $200/bbl because of high initial commercial stocks in the US and Asia, demand rationing (0.5-1.0mb/d), and emergency reserve releases.
• 3.US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases have accelerated significantly, increasing from 0.75mb/d to 1.2mb/d in the latest week.

Table of Contents

• Crude oil: global inventory depletion timeline
• Oil products: global inventory depletion timeline
• Explainer: why oil prices are not USD200/bbl
• What has changed in the last week
• What to watch in the next week
• Changes to Persian Gulf oil output
• Exports from Persian Gulf producers
• Persian Gulf oil supply curtailment by country
• US shale oil
• Strait of Hormuz
• US oil exports surge higher
• Global crude oil inventories remain elevated
• Global oil product inventories showing sharp falls
• Crude oil at sea (global)
• Persian Gulf inventories
• US oil product inventories fall below 10yr range
• Weekly drawdowns from US SPR are accelerating
• High oil refining margins reflect strong demand
• Global oil product prices
• Global crude oil prices
• Crude oil spreads

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