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June 3, 2026

Farmgate Milk Price Revised Up To $9.20 For 2026/27

Commodities StrategyCommoditiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsConsumer StaplesEnergy

ANZ has upgraded its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast to $9.20/kgMS due to firm global prices and a favorable exchange rate. However, rising diesel and fertilizer costs stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions are expected to squeeze farm margins.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.ANZ has revised its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast up to $9.20/kgMS from $8.70/kgMS.
  • 2.Input costs (diesel, fertiliser) are rising significantly due to the Middle East conflict, squeezing dairy farm profit margins.
  • 3.The 2025/26 season forecast remains unchanged at $9.85/kgMS, signaling a strong performance for the concluding year.

Table of Contents

  • Summary
  • Bearish outlook, but season starting on firm ground
  • Input costs will be higher next season
  • 2025/26 wraps up
  • Meet the team
  • Important Notice

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Authors

Matt DillySharon ZollnerDavid CroyMiles Workman

Securities

Milk Price FuturesFonterraNZD/USD

Themes

Dairy Profit Margin SqueezeGeopolitical Impact on Agricultural Inputs

Regions

Asia PacificMiddle EastNew Zealand