ANZ
June 3, 2026
Farmgate Milk Price Revised Up To $9.20 For 2026/27
Commodities StrategyCommoditiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsConsumer StaplesEnergy
ANZ has upgraded its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast to $9.20/kgMS due to firm global prices and a favorable exchange rate. However, rising diesel and fertilizer costs stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions are expected to squeeze farm margins.
Key Takeaways
- 1.ANZ has revised its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast up to $9.20/kgMS from $8.70/kgMS.
- 2.Input costs (diesel, fertiliser) are rising significantly due to the Middle East conflict, squeezing dairy farm profit margins.
- 3.The 2025/26 season forecast remains unchanged at $9.85/kgMS, signaling a strong performance for the concluding year.
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Bearish outlook, but season starting on firm ground
- Input costs will be higher next season
- 2025/26 wraps up
- Meet the team
- Important Notice
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Authors
Matt DillySharon ZollnerDavid CroyMiles Workman
Securities
Milk Price FuturesFonterraNZD/USD
Themes
Dairy Profit Margin SqueezeGeopolitical Impact on Agricultural Inputs
Regions
Asia PacificMiddle EastNew Zealand
