Copper Fundamentals Masked by Policy Distortions

The copper market is materially tighter than headline inventory figures suggest due to US-specific stockpiling and emerging supply constraints from global sulphuric acid shortages. ANZ Research remains bullish, raising its year-end 2026 price forecast to $14,000/t.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Copper market tightness is being masked by US policy distortions, where high domestic inventories contrast with supply scarcity in Europe and Asia.
• 2.A new supply constraint has emerged via sulphuric acid shortages, particularly impacting Chile and Africa, caused by Middle East disruptions and Chinese export curbs.
• 3.Demand resilience is fueled by manufacturing stabilization in Asia and a long-term boom in AI data center investment and grid electrification.

Table of Contents

• Authors
• Copper's tight fundamentals masked by policy distortions
• Market besieged by more supply side issues
• Demand strengthening
• Headline inventory growth masks a bifurcation
• Low threat of US inventory flooding the market
• Implications for the global market
• Important Notice

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