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May 20, 2026

Commodity Tracker Fragile Calm

Market ReportCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsEnergyMaterials

ANZ Research highlights that commodity markets remain in a 'fragile calm,' with critical supply risks in oil, gas, and aluminium currently underpriced by investors.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Global oil supply losses, particularly from the Middle East and Russia, are significantly underpriced despite a recent drop in price volatility.
  • 2.Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and drone attacks on Russian facilities pose a sustained threat to energy and industrial metal supply chains.
  • 3.Precious metals are facing short-term headwinds from rising USD and yields driven by inflation fears, though structural demand from central banks remains high.

Table of Contents

  • Commodity market scoreboard
  • Energy
  • Precious metals
  • Critical minerals
  • Bulks
  • Important notice

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Authors

Soni KumariDaniel Hynes

Securities

Brent CrudeWTIXAULME Aluminium

Themes

Geopolitical Supply DisruptionsInflation and Central Bank Policy DivergenceChina Economic Moderation

Regions

GlobalMiddle EastAsia PacificUnited StatesChinaRussia