China's credit growth is expected to slow structurally through 2026, driven by record-high RMB loan maturities and shifting policy priorities favoring quality development over expansion.
Key Takeaways
- 1.RMB loan and aggregate financing growth rates in China are projected to slow to 4.9% and 7.1% respectively by the end of 2026 due to heavy loan maturities.
- 2.The credit expansion slowdown is considered structural and aligns with China's policy shift toward quality development over quantitative expansion.
Table of Contents
- China: debt growth revised down
- Estimation of RMB loan maturities
- Forecast updates: RMB loans and aggregate financing
- Macro implications
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Authors
Zhaopeng Xing
Themes
DeleveragingStructural Economic Shift
Regions
Asia PacificChina