China Corporate FX Settlement Likely Boosted M1

May 2026 data shows a solid M1 money supply supported by exporter FX conversions, despite slowing bank loan growth driven by record loan maturities. ANZ has revised its year-end forecasts for credit growth downward while strengthening its USD/CNY target to 6.60.

Key Takeaways

• 1.M1 growth reached 5.5% in May 2026, largely driven by exporter FX conversions rather than broad credit demand.
• 2.Bank loan growth is slowing due to large loan maturities, leading to revised year-end forecasts for bank loan growth (4.9%) and aggregate financing (7.1%).
• 3.The USD/CNY year-end target has been revised to 6.60 from 6.70, reflecting stronger currency expectations.

Table of Contents

• China: corporate FX settlement likely boosted M1
• Highlights of the data
• The Outlook

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