Australia Dwelling Prices and Budget 2026-27

The 2026-27 Australian Budget's tax changes to CGT and negative gearing are projected to lower long-term housing prices by approximately 2%. Near-term market trends will be determined by investor behavioral responses, monitorable via high-frequency auction and listing data.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2026-27 Budget's changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing are expected to result in a modest long-term reduction in housing prices, likely around 2% lower than otherwise.
• 2.Near-term price effects are uncertain and depend on whether investors choose to sell immediately or hold grandfathered assets.
• 3.High-frequency data such as auction clearance rates and listings will be the primary indicator for the immediate market reaction.

Table of Contents

• Authors
• Australia's dwelling prices and Budget 2026-27
• Important Notice

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