Australian Macro Weekly: From Fiscal to Monetary Policy

ANZ Research highlights that Australia's 2026-27 Budget maintains a 1.0% GDP deficit with significant tax reforms but neutral near-term macro impacts. Market attention now shifts to RBA policy minutes and easing labor market conditions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Australia's Budget 2026-27 shows a slightly better fiscal position than forecast, with deficits of 1.0% of GDP through 2028-29.
• 2.Major structural changes were announced for capital gains taxation, negative gearing, and trust taxation, creating uncertainty for near-term house prices.
• 3.The housing market is showing signs of cooling, with total housing lending falling 3.8% q/q in Q1 2026.

Table of Contents

• Contents
• Contributors
• From fiscal to monetary policy
• The week ahead
• Chart of the week
• The week that was
• Energy and supply chain monitor
• Recent reports
• Data previews
• Forecasts
• Data and events calendar
• Five-week calendar
• Important Notice

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