Australian Macro Weekly

ANZ Research forecasts a slowdown in Australian GDP growth through 2027, while expecting inflation to ultimately ease toward target. The RBA is projected to keep the cash rate at a 4.35% peak, balancing growth concerns against recent persistent trimmed mean inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Q2 trimmed mean inflation is expected to be 0.9% q/q and 3.7% y/y, slightly lower than the RBA's 3.8% forecast.
• 2.Real GDP growth forecasts for Australia have been revised downwards to 1.1% y/y for 2026 and 1.6% y/y for 2027.
• 3.The RBA is expected to keep the cash rate peak at 4.35%, though persistent trimmed mean inflation remains a hawkish signal.

Table of Contents

• The week that was
• Energy/supply chain monitor
• Recent insights
• Data previews
• Forecasts
• Data and event calendar
• Five-week calendar

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