Asia Macro Weekly

This report outlines the Q2 2026 slowdown in China's GDP growth and forecasts a V-shaped recovery in H2 supported by existing fiscal facilities. It also provides regional updates for India, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% due to fiscal pullback and external shocks.
• 2.The economy is expected to see a V-shaped recovery in H2 2026, supported by unspent fiscal quotas.
• 3.Policy focus is shifting from stimulus to de-risking as local government fiscal pressures mount.

Table of Contents

• Key view
• The spring break is over
• The fiscal pullback
• Outlook in H2
• Upcoming events and data
• Data calendar
• Forecasts
• Scheduled central bank meeting dates in 2026
• Recent insights
• Acronyms and abbreviations
• Contacts
• Important Notice

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