ANZ Research Quarterly

The global economy shows resilience amidst a shifting landscape dominated by AI investment and supply-side constraints. Central banks remain hawkish as inflation remains sticky.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global economy shows resilience, but central banks remain vigilant against sticky inflation.
• 2.Artificial Intelligence investment is a dominant cyclical force, with global spend on climate, defense, and AI set to exceed USD10trn in 2027.
• 3.Supply-side challenges, rather than demand weakness, are the primary growth constraints.

Table of Contents

• At a glance
• Bringing it all together | Crisis legacies
• G3 | US: extended hold
• China | Growth moderating
• Australia | The economy is slowing, housing is weak and the cash rate has peaked
• New Zealand | Ready to rebound if given the chance
• India | Supply shock peaks, risks linger
• Asia (ex-Mainland China and India) | Resilient growth
• Pacific | Fiji closing in on one million visitor milestone
• Foreign exchange | USD holding up in the near term
• Global rates | Limit to any move lower in yields
• Commodity markets | Supply disruptions
• Forecasts

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