Weekly Fuel Market Watch

This report monitors the global and domestic factors influencing New Zealand fuel prices, tracking crude benchmarks, refining margins, and shipping costs. It highlights the increased complexity of fuel price forecasting following New Zealand's shift to a refined-fuel-only import model.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Fuel prices in New Zealand are determined by a complex mix of global crude prices, refining margins, freight costs, and the NZD exchange rate.
• 2.New Zealand's fuel supply chain has structurally shifted to importing 100% refined products following the 2022 closure of the Marsden Point refinery.
• 3.While Brent is the global benchmark, Murban crude from the Persian Gulf is more relevant to the Asian refineries that supply New Zealand.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• ANZ card spending at fuel stations
• National weekly average price paid by consumers as of last Friday
• Crude prices expressed in NZD
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Petrol)
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Diesel)
• Crack spreads
• Refining margins
• Spot-front spread
• Brent futures curve – the market's take
• Brent futures – The evolving shape of the curve
• New Zealand's fuel supply (days cover)
• Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings
• Freight costs
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (petrol)
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (diesel)
• The New Zealand dollar
• OPEC estimated monthly production
• Monthly fuel imports by country (main suppliers)
• Fuel imports by country (historical)
• Fuel supply by method
• Fuel demand by main sector (time series)
• Diesel and petrol end use in "normal times"
• Diesel end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in "normal times"
• Petrol end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in "normal times"

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