Market Risk Monitor

This report monitors the top 10 risks to global markets in May 2026, headlined by the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict and fears of a spike in Treasury yields due to massive U.S. debt.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Sustained conflict with Iran remains the top risk, threatening global energy prices and infrastructure.
• 2.Rising U.S. debt levels, approaching $40 trillion, could trigger a 'bond vigilante' response, spiking Treasury yields.
• 3.The AI infrastructure boom has created a potential bubble in semiconductor and data center valuations.

Table of Contents

• 1 SUSTAINED CONFLICT WITH IRAN
• 2 RETURN OF THE BOND VIGILANTES
• 3 EXPANSION OF CHINESE CONTROL
• 4 RUSSIAN MILITARY CONFLICT WITH NATO
• 5 DEFAULTS OF NON-DEPOSITORY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
• 6 GLOBAL RECESSION
• 7 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INFRASTRUCTURE BUBBLE
• 8 "BLUE WAVE" IN U.S. MID-TERMS
• 9 CIVIL UNREST IN DEVELOPING NATIONS
• 10 EROSION OF FED INDEPENDENCE

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