A Lot More Than Rates Moving Markets

Peter Tchir argues that the recent market pullback, especially in tech and semiconductors, was driven by specific headlines regarding AI spending and S&P index eligibility for mega IPOs rather than interest rates. He expects bond yields to continue a steady grind higher amid inflationary pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Recent equity market volatility, particularly in the tech and semiconductor sectors, was driven less by interest rates and more by specific corporate headlines, including index inclusion rules for mega-cap IPOs and questions regarding AI profitability.
• 2.The author expects a steady grind higher in Treasury yields due to global spending pressures, oil price dynamics, and potential sovereign funding needs.

Table of Contents

• Rates – A Part of the Story
• Fighting Parabolic Moves is Crazy! (until it isn't)
• 3.5 Stories FAR MORE IMPORTANT than Rates
• More AI Anecdotes
• Gambling versus Investing
• Bottom Line