Indian Equities: Fables and Fundamentals

Macro ThematicEquitiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsInformation TechnologyEnergy

India remains a constructive long-term equity story with earnings resilience, having worked off recent valuation froth while establishing a strategic role in the global AI infrastructure and application layers.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.India remains a long-term compounder despite recent underperformance against North Asian markets (Korea/Taiwan) driven by the Gen-AI boom.
  • 2.India is not an 'anti-AI' play; it is building a significant footprint in AI infrastructure (data centers and energy) and local application layers.
  • 3.Indian IT services are navigating an 'AI-led deflation' period, but are expected to reach a revenue inflection point as new AI orchestration services outweigh legacy revenue erosion.

Table of Contents

  • The Long View, and the Short One
  • The Earnings Picture
  • AI: Promise vs Hype
  • Not an Anti-AI Play
  • The IT Services Question
  • The Price You Pay
  • The Rupee Story
  • The Bottom Line

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Authors

Anup MaheshwariVikram Chhabra

Securities

NIFTYMSCI EM

Themes

Gen-AI Hype Cycle and its impact on emerging market relative performance.Decoupling of earnings growth from headcount in IT services.Resilience through infrastructure build-out (Data Centers/Renewables).

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaIndiaSouth KoreaTaiwan