FX Pulse

SocGen reports a fizzling USD bounce as tech shares rebound, alongside a significant directive from China for banks to limit US Treasury exposure. Major central bank updates include a surprise dovish tone from the BoE and a rate hike from the RBA.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China has advised financial institutions to limit US Treasury exposure due to concentration risks and market volatility.
• 2.Central bank policy divergence: RBA hiked rates to 3.85%, while the BoE delivered a dovish hold and the ECB maintained rates with risks balanced.
• 3.US Labor market data (NFP) and CPI are the primary focal points for USD direction, with SocGen forecasting a lower-than-consensus +80k jobs.

Table of Contents

• TABLE OF FX WEEKLY CHANGES
• SUMMARY
• FX FORECASTS (AS OF 4 FEBRUARY)
• NASDAQ DOUBLE TOP ? 23850 VITAL SUPPORT
• FX - KRW HIGHEST BETA WITH TECH STOCKS
• SEMI-ANNUAL FX TURNOVER SURVEY
• ECB SNOOZE
• RBA DELIVERS
• BOE - DOVISH SURPRISE
• US – ANECDOTES SKEW RISK LOWER FOR NFP ON WEDNESDAY 11TH
• CAD UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS IN JANUARY FOR 'WRONG REASONS'
• CNY - 6.90 TEST AHEAD OF LNY BREAK?
• INR - WAITING FOR BREAK BELOW 90.40 (50DMA)
• BRL - CEMENTS LEAD IN LATAM
• MXN: BANXICO PAUSES
• ZAR - CONSOLIDATION BELOW 16
• TRY – JANUARY INFLATION SPIKE, CBRT TO PAUSE EASING?
• PLN – NBP TO RESUME CUTTING NEXT MONTH
• HUF - ORBAN ABANDONS FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AS ELECTIONS LOOM
• CZK – CNB NEXT MEETING LIVE
• RON – FITCH RATING REVIEW ON FRIDAY

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