Currency Crypto and Payment Infrastructure

This report argues that global monetary power is evolving into 'infrastructure realism,' where control over digital settlement networks and payment rails defines geopolitical influence. It highlights how the US dollar is being re-encoded into digital networks via stablecoins to maintain its global reach despite fragmentation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Monetary power is shifting from currency units to the control of payment architecture, trust networks, and liquidity access.
• 2.The US dollar is not weakening but being 're-encoded' into digital networks, specifically through stablecoins which function as digital Eurodollars.
• 3.Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are being developed as strategic tools for sovereignty and infrastructure control rather than simple currency replacements.

Table of Contents

• Introduction: Fragmentation at the edges, dominance at the core
• 1. Payment infrastructure as an instrument of statecraft
• 1.1. Background to SWIFT
• 1.2 SWIFT and other payment networks as US leverage
• 1.3 Rise of alternative rails
• 1.4 From SWIFT to digital rails: the move towards network competition
• 2. Prelude: Bitcoin and the crypto rebellion
• 2.1 Origins and ideology
• 2.2 From niche experiment to geopolitical tool
• 2.3 Limits of the revolution
• 2.4 Where Bitcoin ends and stablecoins begin
• 3. Stablecoins: Digital Eurodollars and the dollar power extension
• 3.1 From fringe to systemically relevant
• 3.2 How GENIUS unlocks potential for USD dominance
• 3.3 Stablecoins as digital Eurodollars
• 3.4 Potential risks to the international monetary system
• 3.5 Global prisoners' dilemma
• 3.6 Stablecoins as a "digital pillar" of dollar dominance
• 4. CBDCs: The sovereign response
• 4.1 Origins and motivations
• 4.2 Case studies: the US, Europe, and China
• 4.3 Challenges to CBDC adoption
• 5. Scenarios for the monetary system (2026-2035)
• 6. Conclusion: Money becomes infrastructure

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